The Denver Broncos (2-3) host the Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) in a rivalry battle on Sunday afternoon. Denver started the season with three straight losses, but the Broncos have won two in a row, including an upset victory over the New England Patriots in Week 6. The Chiefs are one of the NFL's best teams at 5-1, with Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes leading the way at quarterback. Kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. ET.
The latest Chiefs vs. Broncos odds from William Hill list Kansas City as a seven-point favorite, down from opening at -9. With snow in the forecast, the over-under is down to 44.5 after opening at 48.5. Before making any Broncos vs. Chiefs picks, check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It's off to a strong 14-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model is also on an incredible 110-71 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Chiefs vs. Broncos 10,000 times. You can visit SportsLine here to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Broncos vs. Chiefs:
- Chiefs vs. Broncos spread: Chiefs -7
- Chiefs vs. Broncos over-under: 44.5 points
- Chiefs vs. Broncos money line: Chiefs -345, Broncos +285
- KC: Chiefs are 4-2 against the spread this season
- DEN: Broncos are 4-1 against the spread this season
Why the Chiefs can cover
The offense gets the attention for Kansas City, but Andy Reid's team has some strengths on the defensive side. The Chiefs are vulnerable on the ground, but Kansas City owns the third-best mark in the NFL in completion-percentage allowed (60.1 percent).
Denver ranks fourth-worst in the league in total offense, averaging just 305.2 yards per game, and the Broncos are a bottom-eight team in both rushing offense and passing offense. Denver has eight interceptions in just five games, and the Broncos are third-worst in yards per carry (3.7) on the ground.
Denver is also fourth-worst in the NFL in third down offense (35.9 percent) and Kansas City also has an edge in punting. The Chiefs are a top-10 team in net punting at 45.4 yards per punt, while the Broncos are currently second-worst at 38.3 net yards per punt.
Why the Broncos can cover
Denver's offense has struggled overall in 2020, but the Broncos are notably more dangerous with Drew Lock at quarterback. Lock missed time with a shoulder injury but, when on the field in 2019, he completed 64 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns against just three interceptions on the way earning the 2020 job. At wide receiver, Lock has some talented options.
While Courtland Sutton (knee) is sidelined, Tim Patrick has 20 catches for 310 yards and two touchdowns this season, with rookie first-round pick Jerry Jeudy adding 17 grabs for 266 yards and a score. On the ground, Denver should also be able to move the ball effectively, especially when accounting for Kansas City's weakness in run defense. The Chiefs are allowing 145.3 rushing yards per game, the third-worst mark in the NFL, and Denver can lean on a deep stable of ball-carriers in this matchup.
How to make Chiefs vs. Broncos picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it's calling for 48 total points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here.
So who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread to jump on Sunday, all from the advanced model that is up over $7,800 on its NFL picks over the past five-plus seasons.
